METHODOLOGY · Q1 2026
10 min read
Why we widened the session-open filter on EURUSD.
A quiet parameter change after three months of paper-testing. The London open of 2025 became progressively choppier; we widened the entry filter by twelve basis points. Win rate up 3.4 points, average trade unchanged.
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DRAWDOWN POSTMORTEM
14 min read
August 2024: anatomy of a −9.2% drawdown.
The Yen carry unwind and its second-order effects on our positioning. Four bad days in a row, eleven weeks to recover. What we did, what we considered, and what we didn't change despite the temptation.
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REGIME
8 min read
The crypto vol regime has structurally changed.
BTCUSD realised vol is now sustained below 45%, down from a 70% average two years ago. We adapted position sizing in November 2025; here's how, and what it implies for risk-adjusted return.
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METHODOLOGY · Q4 2025
12 min read
Removing trailing stops cost us 0.4 Sharpe.
An experiment we ran in mid-2025. Replacing fixed time-stops with structural trailing stops looked clever in backtest, performed worse live. The unobvious reason: it broke regime-detection's information flow.
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RESEARCH
20 min read
Why we don't trade earnings, and probably never will.
Earnings reactions are dispersed enough that no liquidity-based signal we've designed has positive expectancy net of vol. Three years of data and seven attempts; we're calling it.
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METHODOLOGY · Q3 2025
9 min read
Adding USDJPY: what changed, what didn't.
USDJPY went live in September 2025. Why we added it, why we held off for two years before doing so, and the per-instrument constraints in the algorithm that made it feasible to extend the universe.
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